by Ann Coulter
Posted 10/15/2008 ET
Updated 10/15/2008 ET
With an African-American running for president this year, there has been a lot of chatter about the "Bradley effect," allowing the media to wail about institutional racism in America.
Named after Tom Bradley, who lost his election for California governor in 1982 despite a substantial lead in the polls, the Bradley effect says that black candidates will poll much stronger than the actual election results.
First of all, if true, this is the opposite of racism: It is fear of being accused of racism. For most Americans, there is nothing more terrifying than the prospect of being called a racist. It's scarier than flood or famine, terrorist attacks or flesh-eating bacteria. To some, it's even scarier than "food insecurity."
Political correctness has taught people to lie to pollsters rather than be forced to explain why they're not voting for the African-American.
This is how two typical voters might answer a pollster's question: "Whom do you support for president?"
Average Obama voter: "Obama." (Name of average Obama voter: "Mickey Mouse.")
Average McCain voter: "I'm voting for McCain, but I swear it's just about the issues. It's not because Obama's black. If Barack Obama were a little more moderate -- hey, I'd vote for Colin Powell. But my convictions force me to vote for the candidate who just happens to be white. Say, do you know where I can get Patti LaBelle tickets?"
In addition to the social pressure to constantly prove you're not a racist, apparently there is massive social pressure to prove you're not a Republican. No one is lying about voting for McCain just to sound cool.
Reviewing the polls printed in The New York Times and The Washington Post in the last month of every presidential election since 1976, I found the polls were never wrong in a friendly way to Republicans. When the polls were wrong, which was often, they overestimated support for the Democrat, usually by about 6 to 10 points.
In 1976, Jimmy Carter narrowly beat Gerald Ford 50.1 percent to 48 percent. And yet, on Sept. 1, Carter led Ford by 15 points. Just weeks before the election, on Oct. 16, 1976, Carter led Ford in the Gallup Poll by 6 percentage points -- down from his 33-point Gallup Poll lead in August.
Reading newspaper coverage of presidential elections in 1980 and 1984, I found myself paralyzed by the fear that Reagan was going to lose.
In 1980, Ronald Reagan beat Carter by nearly 10 points, 51 percent to 41 percent. In a Gallup Poll released days before the election on Oct. 27, it was Carter who led Reagan 45 percent to 42 percent.
In 1984, Reagan walloped Walter Mondale 58.8 percent to 40 percent, -- the largest electoral landslide in U.S. history. But on Oct. 15, The New York Daily News published a poll showing Mondale with only a 4-point deficit to Reagan, 45 percent to 41 percent. A Harris Poll about the same time showed Reagan with only a 9-point lead. The Oct. 19 New York Times/CBS News Poll had Mr. Reagan ahead of Mondale by 13 points. All these polls underestimated Reagan's actual margin of victory by 6 to 15 points.
In 1988, George H.W. Bush beat Michael Dukakis by a whopping 53.4 percent to 45.6 percent. A New York Times/CBS News Poll on Oct. 5 had Bush leading the Greek homunculus by a statistically insignificant 2 points -- 45 percent to 43 percent. (For the kids out there: Before it became a clearinghouse for anti-Bush conspiracy theories, CBS News was considered a credible journalistic entity.)
A week later -- or one tank ride later, depending on who's telling the story -- on Oct. 13, Bush was leading Dukakis in The New York Times Poll by a mere 5 points.
Admittedly, a 3- to 6-point error is not as crazily wrong as the 6- to 15-point error in 1984. But it's striking that even small "margin of error" mistakes never seem to benefit Republicans.
In 1992, Bill Clinton beat the first President Bush 43 percent to 37.7 percent. (Ross Perot got 18.9 percent of Bush's voters that year.) On Oct. 18, a Newsweek Poll had Clinton winning 46 percent to 31 percent, and a CBS News Poll showed Clinton winning 47 percent to 35 percent.
So in 1992, the polls had Clinton 12 to 15 points ahead, but he won by only 5.3 points.
In 1996, Bill Clinton beat Bob Dole 49 percent to 40 percent. And yet on Oct. 22, 1996, The New York Times/CBS News Poll showed Clinton leading by a massive 22 points, 55 percent to 33 percent.
In 2000, which I seem to recall as being fairly close, the October polls accurately described the election as a virtual tie, with either Bush or Al Gore 1 or 2 points ahead in various polls. But in one of the latest polls to give either candidate a clear advantage, The New York Times/CBS News Poll on Oct. 3, 2000, showed Gore winning by 45 percent to 39 percent.
In the last presidential election the polls were surprisingly accurate -- not including the massively inaccurate Election Day exit poll. In the end, Bush beat John Kerry 50.7 percent to 48.3 percent in 2004. Most of the October polls showed the candidates in a dead-heat, with Bush 1 to 3 points ahead. So either pollsters got a whole lot better starting in 2004, or Democrats stole more votes in that election than we even realized.
Wednesday, October 15, 2008
Tuesday, October 14, 2008
The Power of Your Positive Mind
The Power of Your Positive Mind
It's hard to believe that the father of positive thinking, Norman Vincent Peale, was once a young boy plagued by an inferiority complex. But through faith, and his realization that people take you at your own self-appraisal, Peale began a journey to a new way of thinking.
If your self-appraisal needs some refinement, incorporate Peale's timeless truths into your life:
Start thinking you can do things. When people believe in themselves they learn the first secret of success.
Practice hope. As hopefulness becomes a habit, you can achieve a permanently happy spirit.
Get fired up with enthusiasm.Those fired up with an enthusiastic idea, and who allow it to take hold and dominate their thoughts, find that new worlds open for them.
Stretch beyond your current limits. We can do just about anything that we really want and make up our minds to do. We are all capable of greater things than we realize.
Practice happy thinking.Our happiness depends on the habit of mind we cultivate. Cultivate the merry heart, develop the happiness habit, and life will become a continual feast.
Like attracts like. If you have zest and enthusiasm you attract zest and enthusiasm. Life does give back in kind.
Maintain enthusiasm through tough times. Cushion the painful effects of hard blows by keeping the enthusiasm going strong.
Believe things will turn out well. Believe it is possible to solve your problem. Tremendous things happen to the believer. So believe the answer will come. It will.
Change your thoughts and you change your world.
It's hard to believe that the father of positive thinking, Norman Vincent Peale, was once a young boy plagued by an inferiority complex. But through faith, and his realization that people take you at your own self-appraisal, Peale began a journey to a new way of thinking.
If your self-appraisal needs some refinement, incorporate Peale's timeless truths into your life:
Start thinking you can do things. When people believe in themselves they learn the first secret of success.
Practice hope. As hopefulness becomes a habit, you can achieve a permanently happy spirit.
Get fired up with enthusiasm.Those fired up with an enthusiastic idea, and who allow it to take hold and dominate their thoughts, find that new worlds open for them.
Stretch beyond your current limits. We can do just about anything that we really want and make up our minds to do. We are all capable of greater things than we realize.
Practice happy thinking.Our happiness depends on the habit of mind we cultivate. Cultivate the merry heart, develop the happiness habit, and life will become a continual feast.
Like attracts like. If you have zest and enthusiasm you attract zest and enthusiasm. Life does give back in kind.
Maintain enthusiasm through tough times. Cushion the painful effects of hard blows by keeping the enthusiasm going strong.
Believe things will turn out well. Believe it is possible to solve your problem. Tremendous things happen to the believer. So believe the answer will come. It will.
Change your thoughts and you change your world.
All Excuses Abolished - You CAN Achieve Success At Any Age!
14 Oct Posted by: Darren Hardy in: SUCCESS
I’m too old, too young or too poor. I don’t have the education. I’m not from the right family. I don’t have the connections, etc., ad nauseam.
I feel one of our jobs here at SUCCESS is to abolish the excuses we were fed to believe for why we are not living up to our potential and achieving the dreams we imagine.
In previous issues we’ve shown that the greatest entrepreneurs and achievers throughout history have come from varied backgrounds—whether born into wealth or poverty, the children of slaves or immigrants, college dropouts or intellectual giants, men or women, black or white or Asian or Hispanic. We’ve shown there is no particular cloth from which achievers are cut; they create their own destiny.
In this issue we set out to prove you can find success at any age. In the forthcoming pages we will demonstrate, through the examples of others, that there is no timeline for success—no invisible clock that says you have to be a certain age before you can achieve your goals, or that says your chance has passed, regardless of how many candles grace your birthday cake.
Having fought age discrimination myself as a young entrepreneur I can tell you firsthand, age is an illusion—for both the doer and the viewer. Like most things, age is a mindset, an attitude. You are as old as you think you are, and thus act, project and interact with the world around you. This projection is what everyone sees and feels from you, thus they respond accordingly. I have seen 80-year-olds (Paul J. Meyer, featured in the June/July issue, comes to mind) act more vivacious, youthful and energetic than most 18-year-olds. I have also met 18-year-olds more sensible, resourceful and seemingly wiser than many “veterans” in executive positions. Age is not the limitation; one’s attitude about age is.
Don’t believe me; believe Ani Patel, a 13-year-old social entrepreneur who is doing what adult onlookers thought was impossible. Then there is Dara Torres, the 41-year-old mother and Olympian who competed in Beijing against women young enough to be her children. And there is the great Tony Hawk, who has defied age on both ends of the spectrum. A pro athlete at 14, the best in the world at 16, and now, at 40 (considered “grandpa” age in skateboarding), he remains not only relevant, but in fact at the very top of a multibillion-dollar industry he helped create (hear a snippet from my interview with Tony)
So, the age card is shredded. You are free to achieve your greatest dreams no matter what age you start after them. Hey, why not start now?
“Go confidently in the direction of your dreams. Live the life you have always imagined.” —Henry David Thoreau
Darren Hardy
SUCCESS Publisher and Editorial Director
I’m too old, too young or too poor. I don’t have the education. I’m not from the right family. I don’t have the connections, etc., ad nauseam.
I feel one of our jobs here at SUCCESS is to abolish the excuses we were fed to believe for why we are not living up to our potential and achieving the dreams we imagine.
In previous issues we’ve shown that the greatest entrepreneurs and achievers throughout history have come from varied backgrounds—whether born into wealth or poverty, the children of slaves or immigrants, college dropouts or intellectual giants, men or women, black or white or Asian or Hispanic. We’ve shown there is no particular cloth from which achievers are cut; they create their own destiny.
In this issue we set out to prove you can find success at any age. In the forthcoming pages we will demonstrate, through the examples of others, that there is no timeline for success—no invisible clock that says you have to be a certain age before you can achieve your goals, or that says your chance has passed, regardless of how many candles grace your birthday cake.
Having fought age discrimination myself as a young entrepreneur I can tell you firsthand, age is an illusion—for both the doer and the viewer. Like most things, age is a mindset, an attitude. You are as old as you think you are, and thus act, project and interact with the world around you. This projection is what everyone sees and feels from you, thus they respond accordingly. I have seen 80-year-olds (Paul J. Meyer, featured in the June/July issue, comes to mind) act more vivacious, youthful and energetic than most 18-year-olds. I have also met 18-year-olds more sensible, resourceful and seemingly wiser than many “veterans” in executive positions. Age is not the limitation; one’s attitude about age is.
Don’t believe me; believe Ani Patel, a 13-year-old social entrepreneur who is doing what adult onlookers thought was impossible. Then there is Dara Torres, the 41-year-old mother and Olympian who competed in Beijing against women young enough to be her children. And there is the great Tony Hawk, who has defied age on both ends of the spectrum. A pro athlete at 14, the best in the world at 16, and now, at 40 (considered “grandpa” age in skateboarding), he remains not only relevant, but in fact at the very top of a multibillion-dollar industry he helped create (hear a snippet from my interview with Tony)
So, the age card is shredded. You are free to achieve your greatest dreams no matter what age you start after them. Hey, why not start now?
“Go confidently in the direction of your dreams. Live the life you have always imagined.” —Henry David Thoreau
Darren Hardy
SUCCESS Publisher and Editorial Director
super cool photo from auction by Ann
She said the young men were all over the place there.. in and out of the old cow pens, all over bare foot! just a truly awesome shot by Ann!
small wall along the front two...
total value of just the 2 walls.. 85,000.00 plus land at 150000.00 before they start on home.. about 3000 sq ft.. looking south ...
front of property.. home will be east to west beween to walls....
big mound of dirt on the left will have to be moved.. might take two semis weeks to move out..
who knows.. have a great day
Friends of ours are building a home in Steeple Chase in Perkins.. this is the retaining wall alone.. on back of property
getting ready to build the retaining wall... two this is the back oneMonday, October 13, 2008
From Marilyn K comes this ditty....
Today's Economics
If you had purchased $1,000 of shares in Delta Airlines one year ago, you would have $49 today. If you had purchased $1,000 of shares in AIG one year ago, you would have $33 today. If you had purchased $1,000 of shares in Lehman Brothers one year ago, you would have $0.00 today.
But, if you had purchased $1,000 worth of beer one year ago, drank all the beer, then turned in the aluminum cans for recycling refund, you would have received $214!
Based on the above, the best current investment play is to drink heavily and recycle. It is called the 401-Keg. A recent study found that the average American male walks about 900 miles a year. Another study found that Americans drink, on average, 22 gallons of alcohol a year.
This means that, on average, Americans get about 41 miles to the gallon. Kind of makes you proud to be an American!
If you had purchased $1,000 of shares in Delta Airlines one year ago, you would have $49 today. If you had purchased $1,000 of shares in AIG one year ago, you would have $33 today. If you had purchased $1,000 of shares in Lehman Brothers one year ago, you would have $0.00 today.
But, if you had purchased $1,000 worth of beer one year ago, drank all the beer, then turned in the aluminum cans for recycling refund, you would have received $214!
Based on the above, the best current investment play is to drink heavily and recycle. It is called the 401-Keg. A recent study found that the average American male walks about 900 miles a year. Another study found that Americans drink, on average, 22 gallons of alcohol a year.
This means that, on average, Americans get about 41 miles to the gallon. Kind of makes you proud to be an American!
Photo Journalist Ann Moffat was on hand for Premier Auctions Fall Consignment Auction and caught some cool images!!
Images by Photo Journalist C. Ann Moffat, Stillwater, OK USA
Honestly... there are some cool shots to see... some will mean more to our kiddos than others.. especially on with four of our acquaintances over the years...
there are many that are great shots but one in fact is in my books the winner... the father with three barefoot sons on a small disk... second by just a tiny bit might be the two gentlemen visiting... and ... well you check it out and see... Great eye Ann... thanks from all of us for the great shots!
and to Heather who has been a life saver at our first two auctions! many thanks to you, too!
(I did not know Heather had a cell phone attached to her index finger and thumb till working with her. I guess I missed it all those years, sorry kiddo. smiling, I will go... hehe... love you sweetie!)
Enjoy the day and the photos... was a great day except if you happened to like both Oklahoma schools and wished the best for both.. then it was sad...
Honestly... there are some cool shots to see... some will mean more to our kiddos than others.. especially on with four of our acquaintances over the years...
there are many that are great shots but one in fact is in my books the winner... the father with three barefoot sons on a small disk... second by just a tiny bit might be the two gentlemen visiting... and ... well you check it out and see... Great eye Ann... thanks from all of us for the great shots!
and to Heather who has been a life saver at our first two auctions! many thanks to you, too!
(I did not know Heather had a cell phone attached to her index finger and thumb till working with her. I guess I missed it all those years, sorry kiddo. smiling, I will go... hehe... love you sweetie!)
Enjoy the day and the photos... was a great day except if you happened to like both Oklahoma schools and wished the best for both.. then it was sad...
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